Friday, January 18, 2008

$107.8 Billion In Losses and Counting

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/01/wheeee.html

I've seen projections of losses up to $500 Billion. This does not include potential Credit Default Swap losses of ~$250 Billion or more. These projections also don't factor in a 30% decline, nationally, in housing.

Here's a quote from Bill Gross of PIMCO:

"The unfairly "Ben Stein pilloried" Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs estimates that mortgage related losses of $200-400 billion alone might lead to a pullback of $2 trillion of aggregate lending. Even if this occurs gradually, he writes, "The drag on economic activity could be substantial." Add to that my $250 billion loss estimate from CDS, as well as prospective losses in commercial real estate and credit cards in 2008 and you have a recipe for a contraction in credit leading to a recession."

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2008/IO+January+2008.htm

-stealth

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